Asia Business Leaders (东方企业家) is a monthly magazine started in 2006 by a group of people who defected from the popular news magazine Modern Weekly （周末画报) and other publications.

Jean Chen (陈俊) is a senior editor at the magazine and writes a blog. A native of Shanghai, Chen has worked in that city and in Beijing for TV stations, websites and newspapers including the Economic Observer.

At Asia Business Leaders, Chen covers Internet and digital business news.

He briefly answered some questions from Danwei about China’s economic prospects for 2009.

What are your predictions for 2009 for China’s economy?

The first half of the year will be the most difficult period. But the real situation will be even more severe than what has already been reported.

What do you think China’s GDP growth of 2009 will be?

The predicted 8% rise, which the government wants to attain, will be hard to reach.

Which businesses do you think will be most affected by the economic recession, and which will benefit from the recession?

The most affected will be foreign trade, logistics, and real estate.

The ones that won’t be affected are Internet gaming and e-commerce businesses.

Chinese government officials will benefit from the economic recession. They won’t lose their jobs. The government will also benefit from the 4 trillion yuan they’ll put into the stimulating the economy.

Asia Business Leaders December issue

Will companies like Baidu and QQ (Tencent) be affected?

No. Their business is driven by people who shut themselves in with the Internet.

What effects will the recession have on Internet media in China?

Internet media will integrate with print media. Like now, I preview who I will be interviewing on my blog, and collect questions from the readers.

Immediately after the interview, I write up interesting tidbits on the blog. Then when it is printed, I will paste it in and link to it. Recently I have also started to use social networking sites and microblogging — Twitter.